Bright Oluwatomilola Olunusi
ABSTRACT. This study investigates environmental sustainability and growth trends in Nigeria over a 30-year period (1991–2020), focusing on key indicators such as agriculture value added, forest area, employment in agriculture, employment in industry, and renewable energy consumption. Time series analysis reveals a linear increase in deforested land and agricultural expansion, alongside a decline in agricultural employment, which stabilised around 2013. Employment in the industry showed a dip until 2011, then increased steadily. Gender-disaggregated data highlights a notable disparity in agricultural employment, with significantly more males engaged compared to females. Using regression analysis with leaps, autoregressive distributed lag models, and Granger causality tests, the study identifies strong associations between deforested land and predictor variables such as agricultural land percentage, employment in industry, and renewable energy consumption. The results show that these variables significantly predict deforestation. Interestingly, a significant negative association was found between employment in agriculture and deforestation, although causality tests indicated no significant causation, suggesting a nuanced relationship influenced by factors like land-use conflicts and climate change. These findings highlight the nexus between socio-economic factors and environmental outcomes, emphasising the need for targeted policies to address deforestation, promote sustainable land management, and reduce gender disparities in agriculture. This research provides valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders aiming to foster sustainable development and inclusive economic growth in Nigeria and across Africa.
Keywords: agricultural land-use change; deforestation; economic development; environmental sustainability; renewable energy; time series analysis.
